MVPC utilizes Policy Insight, a regional econometric model developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), to produce economic forecasts and to run simulations. The model is an important tool for measuring the regional economic impacts of shifts in public policy, demographics, or economic performance.
Policy Insight Version 9.5 Standard Forecast of
Major Regional Economic Indicators
|
History
|
Forecast
|
|
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Total Population (Thous.)
|
323.5
|
323.5
|
323.1
|
323.3
|
322.8
|
322.3
|
322.0
|
321.9
|
322.0
|
322.2
|
322.7
|
323.4
|
|
Total Labor Force (Thous.)
|
168.0
|
167.0
|
165.3
|
164.9
|
165.4
|
165.8
|
166.4
|
167.1
|
167.9
|
168.8
|
169.4
|
170.0
|
|
Total Employment (Thous.)
|
166.2
|
164.7
|
165.7
|
167.8
|
169.4
|
170.7
|
172.2
|
174.3
|
175.8
|
177.5
|
179.0
|
180.3
|
|
Gross Regional Product(Bill. Chained 2000$)
|
10.47
|
10.78
|
11.04
|
11.31
|
11.70
|
11.81
|
12.30
|
12.87
|
13.32
|
13.80
|
14.27
|
14.75
|
|
Price Index (Fixed 2000 $)
|
105.7
|
107.2
|
110.1
|
112.9
|
116.2
|
119.0
|
121.3
|
123.8
|
127.4
|
130.8
|
134.2
|
137.4
|
|
Employee Comp. Rate (Thous. Nom. $)
|
39.38
|
40.87
|
41.32
|
42.71
|
44.80
|
46.54
|
48.61
|
50.62
|
52.66
|
54.72
|
56.78
|
58.88
|
In 2004, MVPC purchased TranSight, a new REMI forecasting tool that focuses on the regional economic impacts of changes in average commute times or transportation improvement projects, such as highway widening and public transportation upgrades. TranSight works off of REMI's standard economic model, Policy Insight, to produce its forecasts.
Regional Effect of a Five-Minute Increase in Average Commute Times (one-way) on REMI Standard Forecast
| |
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
| Total Population (Thous) |
-0.003
|
-0.011
|
-0.024
|
-0.041
|
-0.063
|
-0.090
|
-0.123
|
-0.160
|
| Total Labor Force (Thous) |
+0.004
|
+0.010
|
+0.016
|
+0.023
|
+0.030
|
+0.037
|
+0.045
|
+0.052
|
| Total Employment (Thous) |
-0.060
|
-0.119
|
-0.178
|
-0.240
|
-0.302
|
-0.364
|
-0.428
|
-0.493
|
| Gross Regional Product (Billions Chained 1996 $) |
-0.003
|
-0.007
|
-0.011
|
-0.014
|
-0.018
|
-0.023
|
-0.027
|
-0.032
|
| Price Index (Fixed 1996 $) |
+0.001
|
+0.002
|
+0.003
|
+0.003
|
+0.004
|
+0.005
|
+0.005
|
+0.006
|
| Wage Rate (Thous Nom $) |
+0.001
|
+0.003
|
+0.004
|
+0.005
|
+0.007
|
+0.008
|
+0.009
|
+0.010
|
| Note: The above TranSight analysis is based off of Policy Insight version 6.0 |
